Mathematical Modelling and The Transmission Dynamic of The Ebola Disease with Hospitalised Treatment

Abstract

The model is governed by a system of five ordinary differential equations namely: five compartments namely: the susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infected (I), Hospitalized (H), and Recovery (R). The model was analyzed to find the global stability, reproduction number, bifurcation, endemic equilibrium, and disease-free equilibrium. The analysis's findings show that the bifurcation displays reverse bifurcation. There is now global asymptotic stability in the system. Based on numerical simulations of the model, it was found that the first week of the outbreak was when Ebola was most common. But as safety precautions were put in place, it gradually decreased. It is significant to remember that in order to avoid a relapse into the original high levels, treatment is required. The contaminated compartment remained high throughout the first five weeks of the outbreak, but with the right therapy, it began to diminish. Due to drug experimenting, the hospitalized compartment saw a large number of patients during the first week. Nonetheless, it kept declining with the right medication administration. The recovery section illustrates that prompt identification and appropriate care are essential for each person to recover from Ebola.