Macroeconomic Instability and Population Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics, 2000–2024

Abstract

This study investigates the empirical link between macroeconomic instability measured via inflation and official exchange rate dynamics and population growth rates in Nigeria across a 25-year operational horizon (2000–2024). Secondary annual time-series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the World Bank are analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics Version 25. Addressing key econometric assumptions, the analytical framework executes descriptive profiling, formal linear regression assumption testing (including multicollinearity diagnostics via Variance Inflation Factors, error independence via Durbin Watson statistics, residual normality via the Shapiro Wilk test, and homoscedasticity), simple linear specifications, an additive multiple linear regression, and an interactive model specification to capture the joint compounding pressure of currency depreciation and consumer price inflation. The empirical findings reveal that standalone annual inflation ( ) and exchange rate depreciation ( ) exert statistically significant negative effects on population growth. In the additive multiple regression model, both variables jointly account for  of demographic variance ( ), though individual coefficients lose statistical significance due to strong collinear shared variance ( ). Incorporating an interaction term ( ) isolates the compounding transmission channels of cost-push shocks on demographic slowdown. The study concludes that macroeconomic hardship acts as an active constraint on demographic expansion, corroborating the modern tenets of Malthusian preventive checks and Demographic Transition Theory. Strategic policy interventions focused on foreign exchange stabilization, domestic price restraint, and targeted social safety nets are recommended.