Impact of Armed Banditry on Agricultural Productivity Among Rural Farm Households in North Central Nigeria: A Propensity Score Matching Approach

Abstract

Armed banditry has emerged as a major threat to rural livelihoods and agricultural production in Nigeria, particularly in North Central Nigeria, a major food-producing region. Despite growing evidence linking insecurity to agricultural decline, empirical evidence on the causal effects of banditry on household’s farm productivity remains limited. This study examines the impact of banditry on agricultural productivity among rural farm households in Niger and Plateau States Nigeria. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 399 households, comprising 194 from banditry-affected and 205 from non-affected communities. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) was estimated as the ratio of total output value to total input value per hectare. Propensity Score Matching (PSM), using one-to-one, nearest neighbour, radius and kernel matching, was employed to estimate the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT), while probit regression identified productivity determinants. Mean TFP was 3.83 among affected farmers compared with 5.31 among non-affected farmers, representing a 1.48-unit productivity gap. Radius matching produced an ATT of −1.2041 (p < 0.01), indicating that banditry reduced productivity by approximately 1.2 units. Frequency of attacks and livestock loss negatively influenced productivity, whereas: education, credit access, extension contact, farmer association membership and farming experience had positive effects. This study concludes that banditry substantially constrains agricultural productivity and recommends labour saving, climate smart technologies and secure farming systems, including home based bag farming, improved seeds, mechanisation, irrigation, dry-season farming and digital extension, to sustain productivity while reducing farmers’ exposure to insecurity.