Trend Analysis of Climatic Variables in the Niger Delta Region Nigeria

Abstract

The study examined climatic trends in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria using 1951-2012 climatic data for five synoptic stations in the region. Rainfall, raindays and mean temperature were selected for this study. Second order polynomial, bivariate linear regression analysis and standardized anomalies were used to investigate the annual trends and deviations of climatic parameters from their respective mean. Correlation coefficient was used to ascertain the statistical significance of the trend, the result showed that annual mean temperature revealed an upward trend since 1951 up to 2012 in the region, the observed upward trend are statistically significant at 99% level of confidence (α ꞊ 0.01) while rainfall and raindays are not statistically significant. The result of the standardized anomalies of annual mean rainfall in the Niger Delta region clearly depicts a fluctuating rainfall pattern while the standardized anomalies of mean temperature indicated warming in the region, showing more positive deviation from the mean. Although statistical evidences were not enough to conclude that there is a climatic change in the region, it can be concluded that there are pieces of evidence of climate change in the Niger Delta region. Therefore, there is the need to develop the knowledge and skill for early warning about whether events, increasing the network of synoptic weather stations in the region so as to have adequate up to date record of climate and weather indicators available and accessible to researchers and the general public for free.