Mathematical Model for the Transmission Dynamics of Lassa Fever Disease with Contact Tracing and Effective Quarantine

Abstract

In this paper, we developed a mathematical model to study transmission dynamics of Lassa fever with contact tracing and effective quarantine as control strategies. The model is sub divided into eight mutually exclusive classes namely: Susceptible human S_H, Humans suspected to have had contact with the infected C_H , Infected humans I_H, Quarantined humans Q_H, , Dead humans D, Susceptible rodents S_R, and Infected rodents I_R. We established the positivity of the solution for the model equations, more also, we obtained the invariant region of the system. The disease-free equilibrium point was established and the model threshold parameter (Reproduction Number) was examined using next-generation operator method. The model analytical result shows that diseases free
equilibrium is local asymptotically stable at R₀ < 1 and unstable at R₀ > 1, We also established that the model is globally asymptotically stable using Castillo-Chavez method. The simulated results show that effective contact tracing and quarantining reduces the spread of Lassa fever. We therefore conclude that every effort must be put in place by the agencies concern to ensure that early contact tracing and effective quarantining is encouraged as this play a very vital role in controlling the spread of the virus.